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| #901605 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 05.Sep.2017) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 Convection continues near the center of the depression, although it isn`t very curved at this time. Overall, westerly shear is keeping most of the thunderstorm activity in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Dvorak estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. Global models suggest that the westerly shear should gradually subside over the next few days while the depression moves over very warm water. This is a recipe for strengthening, and the official forecast is similar to the previous advisory. More guidance members are showing the cyclone eventually becoming a hurricane than the last cycle, so the peak intensity is bumped up 5 kt, staying a bit above the model consensus. Microwave data indicate the depression continues to drift eastward. The cyclone should gradually turn southward and southwestward as high pressure builds near Texas, along with an increase in forward speed forecast on Friday. The guidance has come into somewhat better agreement on the track forecast during the past 6 hours, and little change was made to the previous advisory. The NHC forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance, since models in that part of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tend to have a northward bias. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.2N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.1N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 21.8N 95.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 21.5N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.2N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 20.8N 95.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 19.4N 98.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
