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| #901630 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 06.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 Satellite images indicate that Jose`s banding features are becoming better established, and the center is now located near the middle of the central dense overcast. An average of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin at 0600 UTC supported an intensity of 45 kt, but since the storm continues to organize, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt at this time. Satellite fixes suggest that Jose is moving westward at 11 kt. A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 2 to 3 days while Jose moves in the flow on the south and southwest sides of a subtropical high. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is forecast when Jose moves into a weakness in the ridge. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is a considerable amount of spread in the 4 to 5 day period on when and where Jose makes the northwest turn. The NHC official track forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Additional steady strengthening seems likely during the next few days since Jose is expected to remain in favorable environmental conditions. In fact, the SHIPS model shows a 28 percent chance of Jose rapidly intensifying during the next 24 hours. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance, bringing Jose to hurricane strength by tonight and to near major hurricane strength in 72 hours. Thereafter, an increase in vertical wind shear and drier air should end the strengthening trend and cause some weakening. This intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and it is in good agreement with the HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 12.5N 42.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 13.0N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 13.7N 48.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 14.3N 50.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 14.9N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 16.7N 57.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 19.4N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 22.7N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
