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| #901671 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 06.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 Jose is better organized this morning with an initial Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5 from TAFB. This estimate lies between a lower SAB T3.0 and CIMSS ADT T4.0. Since the initial Dvorak fix, SSMIS microwave imagery is showing a well defined center and an enhanced outer band, a precursor to potentially rapid intensification. Therefore initial intensity has been increased to 60 knots, slightly higher than TAFB T number. Initial position estimate is a compromise of TAFB and SAB satellite fixes and a steady west-northwest motion at 15 knots should continue on the southwest periphery of extensive subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Jose. Satellite imagery does reveal drier air north of Jose but general trends suggest favorable upper level outflow and, given considerable distance, do any not expect any adverse influences from Irma to effect Jose at this time. Both satellite and model guidance indicate Jose will continue to exist within a very favorable synoptic regime to support intensification through 72 hours. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is support for somewhat stronger ridging north of Jose and official track has subsequently been shifted slightly left/west of previous forecast track but remains very close to model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 13.1N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 13.7N 46.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 14.3N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 14.8N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 15.4N 55.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 17.3N 58.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 20.2N 61.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 23.6N 64.9W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecasters Carbin/Bann/Lamers |
