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| #901703 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 06.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 Jose has continued to become better organized. Banding convection has become very symmetric around the center, and the upper-level outflow has become well established in all quadrants, despite the presence of Hurricane Irma to the west. An eye-like dimple has occasionally been observed in visible imagery during the afternoon. The initial intensity is now 65 kt, based on the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. There is no reason to believe that the recent intensification trend will end soon. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a 48 percent chance of intensification of 30 kt (or more) in the next 24 h. My forecast is just shy of that, and is close to the intensification rate shown by the HWRF for the next 36 h. After about 48-72 h, the vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, and all of the models forecast weakening. Overall, the NHC forecast is a little above the model consensus for the first 72 h, but close to IVCN by the end of the forecast. A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes and recent visible imagery indicate that Jose is a little farther north than previously estimated. The initial motion estimate is 285/14 kt. Due to the northward shift of the initial position, the forecast has been adjusted in that direction for the first 48 h. However, the reasoning behind the forecast has not changed, and Jose should continue on a fairly steady west-northwest track, steered primarily by the subtropical ridge. After that time, a mid-level trough should cause the ridge to retreat eastward, allowing Jose to gain more latitude. The global models, especially the ECMWF, are suggesting that this turn may occur a little later than previously expected, and have shifted westward a little bit. The new NHC forecast at 96 and 120 h is very close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is about a degree west of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 13.9N 45.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 15.1N 51.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 15.8N 54.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 16.4N 56.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 18.5N 60.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 63.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
