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| #901710 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 PM 06.Sep.2017) TCDAT3 Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017 An Air Force reconnaissance plane just investigated Katia and found a much better organized tropical cyclone with a partial eyewall. It also measured a flight-level wind of 71 kt and 66 kt with the SFMR. Based on these data and the improved satellite presentation, Katia is upgraded to a hurricane with 65 kt winds. The upper-level wind pattern is becoming more favorable, and that can be observed by the expansion of the outflow. All models continue to favor intensification, and in fact, the SHIPS RI index gives a 63 percent chance of a 30-kt wind increase in 24 hours. The NHC forecast calls for strengthening but at this time is not as high as some of the guidance. Katia is embedded within very weak steering currents, and it is now moving slowly toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The hurricane is forecast to meander in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or two. After that time the global models develop a ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this flow pattern will steer Katia southwestward toward the state of Veracruz. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and follows the trend of the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. Given the upward intensity trend and the forecast track toward the coast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch for a portion of the coast of the state of Veracruz. Katia is also forecast to bring torrential rains primarily to the state of Veracruz during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 21.7N 95.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 21.5N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 21.3N 94.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 21.1N 95.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 20.9N 95.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 19.5N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
