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| #901743 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 06.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 Jose`s deep convection displays a tightly curved band that wraps at least twelve-tenths around the center. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased accordingly. Thus, maximum sustained winds are analyzed for Jose at 75 kt, very close to that from the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique. Jose is likely to continue developing during the next day or two while the vertical shear is low, the SSTs are around 29C, and the mid-level humidity is moist. However, beginning in two to three days, the outflow from large, strong hurricane Irma to Jose`s west should start inducing more shear, inducing a steady weakening by days four and five. The official intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM, HWRF, and COAMPS models. Jose`s anticipated peak intensity of 105 kt is slightly higher than the previous advisory, while days four and five show a more quickly weakening system at that time. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest around 15 kt, as it is being advected along the south side of the deep-layer Bermuda high. This motion should continue for the next couple of days. During days three to five, Jose should bend toward the northwest as it moves around the periphery of the Bermuda high. The official track forecast is based upon the very tightly clustered guidance (and their consensus technique - TVCN), which is somewhat west of the previous advisory. If future guidance further shifts westward, then tropical storm or hurricane watches may be required for portions of the Leeward Islands on Thursday. Jose is a small hurricane with tropical-storm-force winds extending out at most 70 nm from the center, based upon NDBC Buoy 41041 and the 0006Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass. The official size foreast - based upon the RVCN consensus - suggests a gradual increase in size for the next three days. Interestingly, buoy 41041 measured a peak 1-minute wind (at 5 m anemometer height) of 61 kt around 22Z. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 14.4N 47.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 14.9N 49.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 15.5N 53.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 16.1N 55.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 16.8N 58.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 19.3N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 22.4N 65.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.9N 68.4W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea |
