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| #901784 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 AM 07.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery indicates some improvement of the inner core during the past several hours. The earlier identified banding eye feature in microwave imagery appears to be closing off in the west side. Based on the overall improvement of the cloud pattern and a consensus of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt. Further strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours. After that time, increasing northerly shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Irma should inhibit further intensification and subsequently, cause the cyclone to begin weakening. The intensity forecast is based primarily on the IVCN consensus model and is close to the HWRF through 48 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt, within the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the western extent of a subtropical high to the north. Jose should continue on this general west-northwestward track through the 36 hour period. Afterward, the ridge to the north is forecast to weaken in response to a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from the northeast. This transition in the synoptic steering pattern should influence Jose in a more northwestward motion through the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is slightly to the left of the previous advisory beyond 48 hours, and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected consensus model and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.8N 49.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.2N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 15.8N 54.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 57.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 17.2N 59.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 19.7N 63.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 23.0N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 26.4N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts |
