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| #901819 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 07.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 Jose is developing an eye. Convection remains very symmetric around the center, and a well-defined mid-level eye has been evident in microwave imagery throughout the morning. Outflow remains well established in all quadrants, despite the close proximity of Irma to the west, perhaps in part due to the small size of Jose. The initial intensity has been held at 80 kt, based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. However, the overall trend of intensification is not likely to have ended, and Jose is still forecast to become a major hurricane in about 24 h. After about 48 h, most of the intensity guidance indicates that Jose will begin to weaken, but the extent of that weakening varies quite a bit, in part due to uncertainty surrounding how much the shear from a deep-layer trough to the north and Irma may affect Jose after it passes the Leeward Islands. The official forecast is still close to the HWRF for the first 36 h, and close to the intensity consensus, IVCN, after that. The initial motion remains 285/16 kt. Almost no change has been made to the first 36 h of the forecast, and the hurricane is still expected to continue west-northwestward, along the southern extent of the subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, the global models suggest that an approaching mid-latitude trough will cause the ridge to retreat, causing Jose to turn more toward the northwest, and eventually toward the north. Based on the lastest model runs, this turn may happen a little later than previously expected. Thus, the NHC official forecast has been nudged toward the west at days 3-5, and is close to the multi-model consensus, TVCX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.9N 50.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.4N 53.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.0N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 16.6N 58.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 17.5N 60.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 20.3N 64.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.0N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 27.0N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
