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| #901848 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 07.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 Jose has continued to develop a well-defined eye on satellite imagery this afternoon, with the eye now established in the center of a ring of strong convection. 18 UTC Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB came in at T5.5, which suggests 100 knot intensity. However, given the ongoing improvements in satellite presentation and CIMSS ADT numbers which have since climbed higher, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at 105 knots. This makes Jose a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is the third major hurricane in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season (Harvey, Irma). It also means we have two major hurricanes simultaneously in the Atlantic basin, which is not too common -- especially in such close proximity. The last time this happened was in 2010 when Igor and Julia were both major hurricanes on September 15-16, and then Igor and Karl were both major hurricanes briefly on September 17. In the near-term, most factors appear aligned for continued intensification. Outflow remains well-established in all quadrants, and Jose has thus far not felt negative impacts from the dry air situated just to its west and northwest. For this reason, we are taking the intensity up to 120 knots at the 24 hour forecast point. After that, a gradual decrease in intensity is shown, in line with most intensity guidance. However, the intensity forecast generally lies above most of the guidance in deference to the ongoing rapid intensification trend. Global models do show that some of the dry air to the west of Jose may wrap into the circulation in about 24-36 hours. That may be a contributing factor to the decrease in intensity, as well as some increasing shear at the base of an upper level low in the central Atlantic and perhaps the periphery of Irma`s upper level outflow. The smaller size of Jose may make it a little more vulnerable to effects of dry air and shear. The initial motion remains at 285/16kt, and Jose will continue to be steered by a well established subtropical ridge. It should not reach the ridge axis until about 36-48 hours, at which point the ridge begins to erode a bit and Jose may turn a bit more toward the northwest and eventually the north. The forecast track remains very similar to the previous official forecast through 48 hours -- roughly between the operational GFS and ECMWF and close to the multi-model consensus. After that time, the steering flow becomes weaker and the forward motion should slow down. Models begin to diverge more significantly at 96hr and especially 120hr. The forecast at these time ranges lies closer to the multi-model consensus and the operational ECMWF than models that show a quicker exit to the east. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 52.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 25.5N 67.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 27.3N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Lamers/Carbin |
