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| #901890 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 07.Sep.2017) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 07 2017 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 72.4W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, as well as for the Florida Keys. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, as well as for the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet and for the west coast of Florida north of Bonita Beach to Venice. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet and for the west coast of Florida north of Bonita Beach to Anna Maria Island. The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the north coast of the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet * North of Bonita Beach to Venice A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet * North of Bonita Beach to Anna Maria Island * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 72.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move westward away from the Turks and Caicos Islands and toward the southeastern Bahamas overnight. The core of the hurricane will then move between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb (27.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft Bonita Beach to Venice...3 to 5 ft Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 6 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area in Haiti tonight. Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are spreading across the southeastern Bahamas and will move into the central Bahamas by early Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba late Friday and Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday, and in portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Sunday evening: Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands... additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6 inches. Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...additional 1 to 2 inches. Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25 inches. Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches. Central Florida into northeast Florida and coastal Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and in some areas mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
