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| #901921 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 08.Sep.2017) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 ...JOSE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 55.3W ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.25 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island of St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * St Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 55.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slower west- northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Jose is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (200 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible later today or tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.25 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch areas by Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life- threatening flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts |
