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| #901923 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 08.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 Jose`s satellite presentation has improved overnight. Cold cloud tops of -75C now surround the clearer and more distinct warming eye. The initial intensity is increased to 110 kt and is based on a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity T-numbers and recent cloud pattern trends. Some increase in strength is still possible during the next day or so while the cyclone remains in a marginally conducive environment. Through the remainder of the forecast period, however, gradual weakening is expected due to an increase in northerly wind shear and an intruding drier more stable thermodynamic environment. The NHC forecast is close to the HWRF model through 48 hours, and then closely follows the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt. Large-scale models are quite similar on a subtropical ridge steering Jose west-northwestward during the next 48 hours, placing the cyclone very near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Saturday. Through day 5, Jose is expected to move northwestward and then northward in response to a large amplitude mid-tropospheric trough approaching the tropical cyclone from the northwest. The new NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous package and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 16.0N 55.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 18.5N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 20.0N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 23.5N 67.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 26.4N 68.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 27.9N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts |
