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| #901967 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 08.Sep.2017) TCDAT3 Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 Infrared imagery and a GPM microwave composite data indicate improved banding over the western portion of the circulation with visible pictures showing the formation of a ragged eye. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB both supported 80 kt winds earlier, and aircraft data suggested that Katia has continued to intensify, so the initial intensity has been increased to 85 knots. Further strengthening is possible, and Katia could be approaching major hurricane intensity prior to landfall Saturday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains after the 48 hour period. The initial motion estimate is 240/4 kt. A continued slow west-southwestward motion under the influence of a mid-latitude high extending east from Texas is forecast until the cyclone makes landfall and quickly dissipates. The official track forecast has changed little from the previous one, and remains roughly in the middle of the guidance. In addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 21.0N 95.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 20.6N 96.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 19.7N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0000Z 19.1N 98.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bann/Carbin |
