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| #902014 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 08.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 Jose`s satellite presentation continues to impress. A nearly perfectly symmetric CDO surrounds a clear eye, and there is still no sign of weakening due to shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Irma. Since the earlier reconnaissance flight, Dvorak intensity estimates have actually increased, however they are still lower than what the plane found. The initial intensity has been held at 130 kt, out of respect of the earlier in-situ observations, but given the current cloud pattern, this could be conservative. Another reconnaissance flight this evening will give a better estimate of the intensity. Internal dynamics are still expected to be the primary factor in the intensity for the next 12 hours or so. After that, all of the intensity guidance continues to show weakening throughout the forecast, though it is worth noting that Jose has already exceeded all previous forecasts. The NHC forecast continues to follow the trend of the models, but is a little above the consensus for most of the forecast period. Given the small size of the inner-core of Jose, if the shear does finally increase, weakening could occur at a faster rate than indicated. The global models have come into very good agreement on the track of Jose for the next 2 days, and there is finally a high degree of confidence in that part of the forecast. The eye of Jose should turn toward the northwest tonight and pass just east of Barbuda on Saturday. Beyond 48 h, the extent to which an approaching mid-level trough will cause the hurricane to turn toward the north, and eventually toward the east still varies from model to model, however the model spread has decreased. Both the GFS and ECMWF show Jose being left behind by the trough at some point and trapped in light steering flow. The forecast continues to split these two models, and is very close to the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.6N 58.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 17.3N 60.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 19.9N 64.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 21.7N 66.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 24.9N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 27.0N 68.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 28.0N 66.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
