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| #902018 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:05 PM 08.Sep.2017) TCDAT3 Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 Satellite imagery continues to show Katia becoming better organized with the formation of a small, cloud-filled eye this afternoon. The initial wind speed has been increased to 90 knots based on the subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Another reconnaissance plane is expected to arrive in a few hours to check on the winds of Katia. Additional strengthening is possible prior to landfall, and Katia could still become a major hurricane, but there is only about 6 hours left for this to occur. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains between 24 and 36 hours. Katia has moved westward during the day, but a longer-term motion is still west-southwestward at 6 kt. The official track forecast was shifted to the north near landfall due to the more westerly track this afternoon. The new forecast then resumes a more southwesterly track based on northerly mid/upper-level flow seen on infrared imagery ahead of the storm and model guidance. In addition to a dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These rains will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 21.0N 96.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 20.8N 97.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 20.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bann/Blake |
