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| #902056 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 08.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this evening and found that the hurricane is even a little stronger than previously estimated. An average of the aircraft`s flight level winds, SFMR values, and dropsonde data support an intensity of 135 kt, making Jose very near category 5 strength. It is surprising that Jose is as strong as the aircraft data suggests, since the hurricane`s satellite appearance has degraded a little during the last several hours. Jose is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected overnight and on Saturday, taking the core of Jose just east of the northern Leeward Islands. The hurricane is forecast to slow down and turn northward in 3 to 4 days when it moves around the ridge and toward a large mid- to upper-level low over the north Atlantic. The models then indicate that the upper low will bypass Jose causing it to drift eastward or meander at the end of the forecast period. The track forecast is fairly close to the previous advisory and lies nearest to the various consensus models. Fluctuations in strength are likely overnight and on Saturday due to the potential for eyewall replacement cycles, but Jose is expected to remain at category 4 strength when it is closest to the northern Leeward Islands. After that time, the models insist that a slow weakening trend should occur through the remainder of the forecast period due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the short term, but then falls in line with the HCCA and ICON consensus models from 48 to 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.9N 59.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 17.8N 60.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 19.1N 62.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 22.4N 66.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 25.3N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 26.8N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 27.7N 66.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
