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| #902148 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 09.Sep.2017) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 ...IRMA CONTINUES TO POUND THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN WHILE HEADING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 79.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF VARADERO CUBA ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from Chassahowitzka to the Suwanee River. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended from north of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River and from north of the Volusia/Brevard County line north to Isle of Palms, South Carolina. The Hurricane Warning for the east coast of the United States has been extended northward to Fernandina Beach, and the Hurricane Watch has been extended from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach. The Hurricane Warning for the Gulf of Mexico coast has been extended to the Aucilla River. The Hurricane Watch is now in effect from west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Edisto Beach to the South Santee River. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. The government of Cuba has extended the Hurricane Warning to the Havana province. The government of the Bahamas has adjusted the Hurricane Warning to only include Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Volusia/Brevard County line southward around the Florida peninsula to the Suwanee River * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of the Volusia/Brevard County line to the Isle of Palms, South Carolina * North of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Aucilla River * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana * Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach * West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass * Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Holguin, Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Edisto Beach to South Santee River * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by a reconnaissance plane and radar near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 79.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west along the north coast of Cuba at near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwest motion is expected to begin later today with a turn toward the north- northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to move near or over the north coast of Cuba later today, and will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). Caibarien, Cuba recently reported a wind gust to 124 mph (200 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...4 to 6 ft Isle of Palms, South Carolina to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Ragged Island in the Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Central and Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through today. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas today, and in portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys tonight and Sunday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. The eastern Florida Panhandle...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...4 to 8 inches. Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the United States today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
