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| #902150 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 09.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 Jose continues to exhibit a well-defined eye in visible and infrared satellite imagery, and U.S. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft measurements suggest that this eye has become slightly more asymmetric. The eye is evident on the Meteo France radar and it is beginning to pass just north of the northernmost Leeward Islands. The aircraft data indicate that Jose remains a category 4 hurricane, and reconnaissance aircraft has reported SFMR and flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 125 kt for this advisory. The latest minimum pressure reported by the plane is 945 mb. Visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate northeastward elongation of the cirrus canopy accompanying Jose, suggesting the southwesterly shear over the system is beginning to increase. The interaction between Jose and shear accompanying the aforementioned trough will likely result in a weakening trend through the weekend. The official intensity forecast has trended slightly lower, consistent with the latest IVCN and HCCA output. Once the deep shear superimposing Jose weakens with the departure of the mid-latitude trough, Jose`s weakening is expected slow by early next week. During the next couple of days, Jose is expected to turn more north of west while being steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. The latest official track forecast reflects a slight increase in forward motion over the next couple of days. By early next week, the flow around the trough will result in a northward, then eastward turn around 26N. Thereafter, Jose forward motion should slow down as it is left within an area of weak steering current behind the trough. The latest track of Jose has been shifted southward after 72 h to be more consistent with the latest ECMWF and TVCN guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 18.3N 61.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 19.4N 62.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 20.9N 64.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 22.6N 66.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 24.1N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 26.0N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 26.0N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 25.7N 66.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cohen/Brown |
