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| #902203 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:17 PM 09.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 Jose continues to be an impressive hurricane. Satellite intensity estimates have been gradually increasing, with TAFB and SAB coming in at 5.5, ADT at 5.8, and 6.0 from CPHC. Indeed, the satellite presentation has been slowly improving over the last several hours as the CDO becomes more symmetric once again, the eye has warmed and become more distinct, and outflow has improved somewhat in the southwest quadrant. In deference to the earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission which found winds higher than the earlier satellite estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 125 kt, but this could be a bit conservative. Another aircraft will be in to sample the wind field around 00z. The initial motion continues to be a fairly steady 310/12. Jose is pushing northwestward around a mid- and upper-level high located to the northeast. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days as the high spreads southward. After 48 hours, the models are in good agreement showing Jose slowing to a crawl and executing a slow loop well to the east of the Bahamas. The much slower forward motion will occur as Jose becomes embedded within a large mid-level anticyclone and steering currents diminish. The guidance has shifted this loop slightly to the south and west for this cycle and the official forecast has been adjusted to be in better alignment with the model consensus. The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. Although the models insist that southwesterly shear will increase over Jose through the next 36 hours, the UW-CIMSS analysis shows that Jose is under a narrow zone of weak shear that appears to be moving westward in tandem with the hurricane. This should allow Jose to maintain its intensity in the short term, with gradual weakening expected thereafter. The official forecast is not as aggressive with weakening as the previous forecast package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 19.2N 62.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 20.4N 64.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 22.0N 66.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 23.7N 67.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 25.0N 69.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 26.3N 69.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 26.1N 67.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 25.0N 67.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard |
