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| #902300 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:13 AM 10.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 Jose remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with a 15 n mi wide eye continuing to be surrounded a solid ring of deep convection. Little significant change in the overall satellite appearance has been observed since a Hurricane Hunter plane sampled the cyclone earlier in the night, and the initial intensity remains unchanged at 115 kt. The initial motion is 310/14 kt, with Jose`s track through the first 24 hours being driven by a mid-level ridge located to the north-northeast of the cyclone. After this time, the steering pattern is expected to become rather dynamic, leading to a 5-day forecast that shows Jose making a small anticyclonic loop over the open waters of the western Atlantic. This occurs as the ridge shifts to the east of Jose from 36 to 48 hours, leading to a reduction in forward speed, and a gradual turn toward the north. A turn toward the east and southeast is expected on days 3 and 4, with an even slower forward motion, as the ridge weakens and moves south of the system. Late in the forecast period, the ridge is expected to build to the northwest and then north of Jose, leading to a gradual acceleration toward the west, and a reduction in the shear. With such a complex steering pattern expected, it comes as no surprise that the track guidance diverges significantly in the latter forecast periods. The updated forecast is close to the previous one, lies close to the FSSE, and is in between the GFS and ECMWF, which are more than 250 miles apart on day 5. The shear over Jose is currently analyzed to be near 10 kt, but north to northeasterly shear is forecast to increase in the short term and remain relatively strong through 48 hours due to Jose moving closer to a building ridge to its northwest. This will lead to a weakening trend, despite the system remaining over SSTs near 29 Celsius. The official intensity forecast is nudged down ever so slightly from the previous one through day 3, but remains higher than the SHIPS model, due to the ECMWF and GFS models maintaining a more intense system. The intensity prediction on days 4 and 5 remains unchanged due to forecast environmental uncertainties at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 20.8N 64.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 22.2N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 24.2N 67.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 25.6N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 26.5N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 26.3N 67.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 25.0N 66.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 24.5N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard/Blake |
