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| #902373 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 10.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 Jose remains an impressive hurricane this morning. A 1019z SSMI microwave pass continued to show a very well defined inner core, but a more recent 1132z pass showed some erosion of the CDO on the northwest side. The well defined eye seen earlier in the first light visible imagery is beginning to constrict and become rather ragged. Satellite intensity estimates were 6.0 (115 kt) from SAB and CPHC, and 6.5 (127 kt) at TAFB. We have maintained an intensity of 115 kt for this advisory. The initial motion continues to be rather steady at 305/15. Jose is located to the southeast of a mid-level high, which has continued to steer the tropical cyclone on this persistent northwest track. Changes are ahead, however. Global models agree that the mid-level high will first build southward, allowing Jose to turn more toward the north in about 36 hours and causing the system to slow considerably. After 48 hours, the high will build to the west of Jose, forcing the hurricane into a slow anticyclonic loop between 48 and 72 hours. After 72 hours, mid-level ridging becomes reestablished north of Jose, causing the system to resume more of a west to west-northwest track through the end of the forecast period. Our latest forecast is similar to the previous package, with some northward adjustment at the end of the period to be in better agreement with the TVCN consensus model. The UW-CIMSS wind shear analysis and satellite derived high level wind fields indicate that Jose is reaching the western end of a narrow zone of weak shear. Although Jose will remain over SSTs over 29C throughout the forecast period, increasing northerly shear should induce a weakening trend through the next 72 hours. Global models show the shear relaxing beyond 72 hours, which may be enough to allow Jose to reintensify. The IVCN shows a bit more dramatic weakening, followed by reintensification. Although this is plausible, the official forecast shows a more modest weakening and intensification than the IVCN in deference to the uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 21.7N 65.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 23.1N 67.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 24.9N 68.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 26.1N 69.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 26.4N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 25.4N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 24.2N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 24.8N 71.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard |
