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| #902552 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 10.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 The eye of Hurricane Jose has been absent in satellite imagery since earlier today as increasing high-level northerly shear has weakened the cyclone. This shear is evident in the latest infrared imagery, with cold cloud tops streaming southward from the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 100 kt with this advisory, based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion for this advisory is 325/12 kt, with Jose expected to move toward the north on Monday as a mid-level ridge centered to the east erodes. As Jose moves north of this ridge in 36 hours or so, a complex and dynamic steering pattern is expected to result in Jose completing a clockwise loop over the western Atlantic through the 5-day forecast period. Despite the complexity, this solution is shared by all the guidance, and the current forecast cycle features better agreement amongst the reliable models. The official track forecast closely resembles the previous one, and lies close to the TVCN and GFEX consensus models. Jose is now experiencing about 20 kt of northerly shear, associated with an upper-level ridge centered to the west. Northerly shear is still expected to increase over the next 12 to 24 hours, and remain moderately strong for a couple of days. Additional weakening is therefore expected through 72 hours despite SSTs sufficiently warm (near 29C) to support an intense cyclone. There remains a chance that Jose moves over its own cold wake on days 3 and 4 as indicated by latest HWRF guidance, which would lead to a greater amount of weakening. Toward the latter part of the forecast period, the shear may relax enough to allow for some reintensification, but the confidence in this is somewhat low. The latest intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus and the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 23.7N 68.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 25.2N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 26.5N 69.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 26.9N 68.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 26.5N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 25.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 24.5N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 25.5N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard |
