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| #902583 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 AM 11.Sep.2017) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 48A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 ...IRMA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 82.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF LAKELAND FLORIDA ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet * North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Jupiter Inlet to Fernandina Beach * North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys * Florida Bay * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bimini and Grand Bahama A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located by NOAA Doppler radar and surface observations near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 82.2 West. Irma is moving toward the north- northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a faster forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over the western Florida peninsula through this morning and then into the southeastern United States late today and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Irma is expected to become a tropical storm over far northern Florida or southern Georgia later today. Irma has a very large wind field. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km). The National Ocean Service station at the Clearwater Beach Pier recently reported a wind gust of 88 mph (142 km/h), and wind gusts of hurricane force have been recently reported at the Orlando International and the Orlando Executive airports. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 960 mb (28.35 inches). Lakeland Regional Airport recently reported a pressure of 963.4 mb (28.45 inches) as the center passed just to the west. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...4 to 6 ft Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...3 to 5 ft Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the central Florida peninsula. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the morning. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in the Northwestern Bahamas for the next several hours. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches. The Florida Keys...Additional 1 inch possible with storm total amounts from 15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi and much of Alabama...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. The center of Irma is becoming less well defined in National Weather Service Doppler radar data, so hourly radar-based position updates are being discontinued at this time. $$ Forecaster Beven |
