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| #902609 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 AM 11.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 Although Jose`s satellite appearance is somewhat degraded due to the effects of northeasterly shear estimated to be near 25 kt, it has been able to maintain persistent deep convection over the center. A well-timed 0456Z GPM overpass helped to confirm that the center was on the north side of the cold cloud tops while also highlighting that an eye feature persists despite being obscured in conventional imagery. Subjective and objective satellite-based intensity estimates indicate that Jose continues on a weakening trend, and this supports lowering the initial intensity to 90 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be 335/09 kt as Jose continues to track around the western side of a mid-level ridge. As this ridge shifts to the southeast and south of Jose over the next 12 to 24 hours, its forward motion will slow, and the system will begin to move toward the northeast. On days 2 and 3 a ridge will begin to strengthen to the northwest of Jose, driving the system toward the southeast. By day 4 the ridge will move to a position north of Jose, which will gradually accelerate Jose toward the west-northwest through day 5. The expectation is that Jose will complete a small clockwise loop over the open waters of the western Atlantic the next couple of days. Despite the complex forecast track, this general solution is shared by all the reliable model guidance. The official track forecast is shifted slightly north from the previous one due to a northward shift in the ECMWF guidance, and is close to the GFEX consensus model. The northeasterly shear currently over Jose will shift to the northwest and will ease a little, but remain strong enough to keep Jose on a weakening trend through day 3. Although SSTs in the area are warm enough to support an intense hurricane, a slow-moving and looping Jose will likely move over its own cold wake around day 3, as seen in HWRF guidance. On days 4 and 5, Jose will move toward warmer water while the shear relaxes, and there is a potential for reintensification. The latest intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus, but it is more aggressive in weakening Jose than the SHIPS model, which is not accounting for interaction with the cold wake. A 1222Z ASCAT pass sampled Jose nearly perfectly, and the 34/50 kt wind radii were adjusted based on this data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 24.4N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 25.8N 69.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 26.8N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 27.0N 67.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 26.3N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 24.5N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 25.0N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 26.5N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard |
