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| #902674 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 11.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 Jose is fighting 25 knots of northeasterly shear this morning according to the UW-CIMSS analysis. A new blowup of deep convection over the center overnight is helping to maintain the satellite-based current intensity estimates, with TAFB and CPHC coming in at 5.0 while SAB had 4.5 and ADT gave 4.6. Have maintained the intensity at 90 kt for this advisory. A 0826z SSMI pass and an 1118z SSMIS pass were quite helpful in determining the analysis position. The analyzed motion for 12z was about 330/12, but Jose should begin trending more northward over the next few hours, if it hasn`t already. There is little change to the overall forecast philosophy, as Jose completes a slow anticyclonic loop over open waters for the next 72 hours. The rather odd forecast track is the result of a mid-level high to the east of Jose which will build south of Jose in 24 hours, then west of Jose in about 48 hours, and north of Jose between days 3 and 4. The guidance initially showed this would be a rather tight loop, but has opened it up considerably in the past few runs with the GFS and consensus models beginning to lean toward the ECMWF idea. Have adjusted the forecast track to be closer to the TVCN. By days 4 and 5, Jose should track toward the west- northwest with a bit faster forward motion as the aforementioned mid-level high strengthens to the northeast of Jose. Northerly shear should continue to affect the hurricane for the next couple of days, although there are some differences in the guidance about how strong this shear will be. Have maintained the trend of the previous intensity forecast showing gradual weakening for the next few days. Jose will likely also cross its own wake between days 3 and 4, which is a little later than previously expected with the larger loop depicted in the forecast track. This forecast maintains modest re-intensification at days 4 and 5 as some of the guidance shows the shear relaxing somewhat and the SSTs will be quite warm, although confidence is quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 25.5N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 26.6N 69.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 27.1N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 26.6N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 25.7N 66.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 24.1N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 24.6N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 26.5N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard |
