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| #902739 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:20 PM 11.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 Jose is a very messy looking hurricane late this afternoon. Persistent northeast shear of 20 to 25 knots has eradicated the central features of the system, leaving a fairly amorphous blob of intermittent, bursting convection. The satellite intensity estimates came in at 4.3 from ADT, 4.5 from SAB, and 5.0 from TAFB. The initial intensity was lowered to 85 kt, which is probably generous given the recent rapid degradation in the satellite presentation. The best guess at an initial motion is 350/10. Jose is expected to slowly complete an anticyclonic or clockwise loop over the next few days, as a mid-level high to the southeast of Jose builds southwest of the tropical cyclone in about 24 hours, then to the west of it in 36 to 48 hours, and northeast of it in about 3 days. By days 4 to 5 the high becomes more well established, and Jose will increase speed a bit as it emerges from the loop and treks toward the west-northwest. The guidance is tightly clustered through the next few days, but diverges a bit in days 4 and 5, with more recent runs showing Jose gaining a bit more latitude in the longer time ranges. Have nudged the forecast track a little farther north toward the GFEX, but the official track remains close to the consensus guidance. There seems to be better agreement in the models regarding the magnitude of the northerly shear, which is expected to continue to weaken the cyclone for the next few days despite warm SSTs. Jose is also expected to cross it`s own wake in a few days which also will be unfavorable for strengthening. In the 4 to 5 day period, the models suggest the shear may relax enough to allow for some re-intensification of Jose, but confidence at this point is rather low. Our intensity forecast closely follows the statistical models, and is near the lower end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 26.4N 69.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 27.2N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 27.0N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 26.3N 66.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 25.3N 66.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 24.4N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 26.0N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 28.1N 74.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard |
