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| #902779 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 11.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 Jose remains resilient in the face of 25 kts of northeasterly shear, with a new burst of deep convection near the center giving the system a slightly better satellite presentation over the last couple of hours. Even so, the convection is pulsing, and satellite based intensity estimates support lowering the initial intensity estimate to 75 kt for this advisory. Due to some uncertainty as to the center location, the initial motion for this advisory is approximated to be 045/05 kts. Latest round of forecast guidance is consistent with the ongoing forecast philosophy, with Jose expected to complete an anticyclonic or clockwise loop over the next 3 days. A mid-level ridge to the southeast of Jose will shift west then northwest of Jose, leading to a southeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the ridge shifts to the north of the cyclone, Jose will briefly stall before resuming a more typical track toward the west and northwest on days 4 and 5. Even with such a complex track expected to evolve, there is good agreement amongst most of the model guidance. The latest official forecast is very close to the previous one, nudged only slightly northward toward the FSSE and other consensus members, but left of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. UKMET and its ensemble mean continue to be on the southwest side of the guidance cone, and these outliers therefore have little impact on the official track forecast at this time. The shear that Jose is encountering is associated with an upper-level ridge centered to the northwest, and even as this feature weakens the next day or so, moderate shear is forecast persist as Jose remains over 29C water. These conflicting inputs are expected to lead to little change in intensity through day 3, with some potential for Jose to intensify toward the end of the forecast period as shear relaxes as Jose moves away from its own cold wake. The latest intensity forecast is of low confidence at this time due to the above factors and keeps Jose a hurricane through the forecast period, and closely resembles SHIPS and IVCN intensity guidance. The National Hurricane Center in Miami will resume issuance of advisories for Jose at the next forecast cycle. Thanks to the Weather Prediction Center, NWS Forecast offices, supporting staff and many participating partners for ensuring a successful continuity of operations during the past several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 27.1N 69.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 27.5N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 27.1N 67.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 26.0N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 25.4N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 25.3N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 27.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 29.5N 75.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard/Roth/Sisko |
