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| #902813 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 12.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 Jose continues to be affected by 20 kt of northerly vertical shear, and recent microwave imagery shows that the low-level center is to the northeast or north of a large burst of convection that shows little evidence of banding. While satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the last advisory, the sheared appearance suggests the cyclone has continued to weaken, and the initial intensity is thus reduced to 65 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. The hurricane appears to have turned eastward with an initial motion of 090/5. As a mid-level ridge first builds around and then moves northeast of the cyclone, the track guidance forecasts Jose to make an anticyclonic half-loop during the next 72 h. After that time, the confidence in the forecast decreases as the guidance diverges significantly. One the right side, the ECMWF and Canadian models forecast a turn toward the north and northeast, while on the left side the UKMET forecasts a westward motion towards the Bahamas. The GFS, HWRF, and the various consensus models are between these extremes in forecasting a turn toward the northwest and eventually north-northwest. The new forecast track is in best agreement with these models and shifts slightly to the right of the previous advisory by 120 h. A strong upper-level anticyclone near 28N 74W is the source of the current shear. As mentioned in the previous advisory, this feature is supposed to weaken and pass north of the cyclone without allowing much decrease in the shear through 48 h. The large-scale models then suggest the possibility of lighter shear from 48-72 h, followed by increasing shear as Jose encounters an upper-level trough moving eastward from the southeastern United States. Overall, the intensity guidance shows small fluctuations in strength during the forecast period, and there is little agreement in the guidance on the timing of the various ups and downs. The intensity forecast will follow the shear trends in calling for some additional weakening during the next 12-24 h, modest re-intensification during the lighter shear, and no change during the subsequent increase in shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 27.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 27.5N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 26.9N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 26.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 25.3N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 25.5N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 27.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 30.0N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
