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| #902853 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 12.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 The satellite presentation of Jose is that of a rather amorphous blob of deep convection, with only slight evidence of banding features. The system continues to be sheared by northwesterly flow associated with an upper-level anticyclone centered just to its west. A value of 65 kt is retained for the current intensity, in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. The dynamical models indicate that the shear over Jose will remain fairly strong for the next few days with perhaps some relaxation by days 3-5 as an upper-level high becomes situated over the system. Thus a little weakening in the short term, followed by some restrengthening later in the forecast period, is expected. Confidence in this intensity forecast is, however, lower than usual. Although the center is difficult to locate, a blend of geostationary and microwave fixes yield a slow eastward motion of around 090/4 kt. Jose is currently situated in a region of weak steering currents. The GFS and ECMWF global models build a mid-level anticyclone to the west of the tropical cyclone in a day or two. The anticyclone is then forecast to shift north, and then east, of Jose later in the forecast period. This evolution of the steering flow should result in the tropical cyclone moving in a clockwise loop over the next several days. Aside from the U.K. Met. Office prediction, which is well south and west of the other track models, the official forecast is near the left side of the guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 27.2N 67.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 26.4N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 25.7N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 25.3N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 26.0N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 30.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
