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| #902919 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 12.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 Recent microwave imagery has revealed that Jose has a fairly sturdy structure, despite 20-25 kt of northerly shear. The hurricane has a well-defined mid-level eye, and a 2241 UTC WindSat pass shows a well-defined low-level circulation that is slightly eroded on the northwest side. Since Dvorak final-T numbers are 4.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 65 kt, although it wouldn`t be surprising if the winds were a little stronger than that. Jose could strengthen slightly during the next 12-24 hours while it remains in a regime of northerly shear, and models like the HWRF and HCCA support that thinking. After 24 hours, the shear is expected to turn out of the west-northwest and west directions, which are less likely to support intensification. Therefore, the NHC official forecast follows the trend of the intensity consensus (IVCN), showing Jose becoming a tropical storm on days 3 through 5. The ECMWF shows Jose encountering significant westerly shear by day 5, so it`s possible that NHC forecast may be a little high toward the end of the forecast period. The microwave data indicated that Jose`s center is a little more southeast than previously estimated, and the initial motion estimate is now 125/8 kt. Jose is being pushed southeastward on the back side of a large mid-latitude trough, but this trough will soon leave Jose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to its north. As a result, Jose is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 3 days and then turn northward and northeastward once it moves around the western side of the ridge. Only the UKMET disagrees with this scenario by maintaining a persistent ridge to the north, and that model is discounted at this time. The NHC track forecast lies closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF for most of the forecast period, and it`s only a bit southwest of the previous forecast through day 3 to account for the updated initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 26.5N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 25.9N 65.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 25.3N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 25.2N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 25.6N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 27.3N 70.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 30.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 32.5N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
