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| #902944 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 13.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 Jose continues to be affected by 20-25 kt of northerly vertical shear, and a recent GMI overpass shows that the low-level center is at the northern edge of the convective mass. While the current organization is that of a system of less than hurricane strength, the various satellite intensity estimates remain near 65 kt. Thus, Jose remains a hurricane for this advisory. The GMI overpass shows that Jose is moving southeastward or 135/7. A large deep-layer trough to the northeast of the cyclone is responsible for this motion. However, this trough will soon leave Jose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to its northwest, north, and eventually northeast. This evolution should cause Jose to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 3 days and then turn northward and northeastward once it moves around the western side of the ridge. The guidance has come into somewhat better agreement for this advisory, as the UKMET has shifted eastward from its Florida landfall forecast and now shows a northward motion along 75W by 120 h. However, there still remains a significant spread between that model on the left and the ECMWF on the right, which has Jose closer to 67W by that time. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 h, and then it is nudged just a little to the west of the previous track. The 72-120 h portion of the forecast track lies west of the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and ECMWF, but lies to the east of the other consensus models. There is a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. First, the large-scale models forecast the current shear is likely to persist for at least the next 24 h, followed by some decrease at about 36-48 h. However, none of the intensity guidance shows weakening during the first 24 h or much strengthening at 36-48 h. Second, the cyclone is likely to cross its path, and possibly a wake of colder sea surface temperatures, between 48-72 h. Third, Jose should encounter stronger shear after 72 h, but it may interact with a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern United States that may give the system a kick through baroclinic processes. Indeed, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF agree on showing a falling central pressure from 72-120 h. Based on the overall trend of the guidance, the intensity forecast is tweaked a little from the previous advisory to show little change in strength through 48 h and slight weakening thereafter. However, this is a low-confidence forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 26.1N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 25.4N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 25.0N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 25.3N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 26.2N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 28.0N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 30.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 33.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
