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| #902974 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 13.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 Jose continues to be affected by strong northwesterly shear associated with an upper-level anticyclone centered to its west. Although the hurricane tried to develop some banding features yesterday, the system has again transformed into a rather shapeless mass of intense convection. The current intensity estimate is held at 65 kt in agreement with Dvorak Current Intensities from TAFB and SAB. The intensity forecast continues to be of low confidence. Dynamical models indicate that strong shear, from varying directions, will persist over Jose for the next several days. Also, the tropical cyclone will likely be passing over its own cold wake in a couple of days. These factors argue against strengthening, so the official forecast shows no change followed by slight weakening later in the period. This is on the high side of the intensity model guidance. Jose has been moving slowly southeastward, or 140/6 kt, between a mid-level anticyclone to its west and a trough to the northeast. The global models show a high pressure area building to the east- northeast of Jose in a couple of days, which should eventually induce a poleward motion. The track models show a looping motion during the next 48 hours followed by a turn toward the north, as does the official forecast. The latest NHC track is similar to the previous one and lies between the ECMWF solution and the other models, which are farther west. This keeps Jose away from land areas for at least the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 25.5N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 25.2N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 25.1N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 25.5N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 26.4N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 31.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 34.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
