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| #903004 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 13.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 Northwesterly shear continues to affect Jose, with exposed low cloud lines over the northwestern portion of the circulation. Overall, the system is a little less well-organized than it was 24 hours ago, with less evidence of banding features. The intensity is kept at 65 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. The global models continue to show significant shear over Jose for the next several days, and this shear is forecast to become quite strong by days 4 and 5. The official intensity forecast shows a little weakening in a couple of days, but it would not be surprising to see Jose drop below hurricane status sooner than shown here. Jose appears to be nearing the base of its anticipated anticyclonic loop while drifting slowly southward. The cyclone is expected to turn to the west and west-northwest over the next day or so. Later in the forecast period, a northward motion is expected as a mid- level high builds to the east-northeast. Jose is expected to move through a break in the subtropical ridge in 3-5 days. The official track forecast is similar to its predecessor and is about in the middle of the reliable guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 25.3N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 25.1N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 25.4N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 26.2N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 27.3N 69.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 30.3N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 33.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 36.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
