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| #903033 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 13.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 Deep convection appears to have expanded out over the estimated location of the low-level center a bit during the past few hours, and the initial intensity is set to 70 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT. Overall, the intensity forecast reasoning has not changed, with moderate shear expected to persist for the next 2-3 days and then increase further late in the period. Slow weakening is expected during the first 24 to 36 hours, followed by little change in intensity during the rest of the forecast period. By day 5, a mid-level trough will likely be supporting Jose with some baroclinic energy to maintain the cyclone`s intensity in an environment of higher shear and slightly cooler waters. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN consensus aid through the period. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/03, as Jose now appears to be moving slowly westward. A building subtropical ridge to the east of Jose will become the dominant steering mechanism through much of the forecast period, with some influence from the above-mentioned upper-level trough by day 5. This pattern should cause Jose to gradually turn poleward during the next 72 hours, with a northward to north-northeastward motion expected by days 4-5. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one at 48 and 72 hours, but is otherwise similar and lies roughly between the GFS and ECMWF models. Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 25.2N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 25.2N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 25.9N 67.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 27.0N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 28.0N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 30.5N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 33.7N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 36.6N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan |
