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| #903052 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 14.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Earlier this morning, Jose began to take on a sheared appearance in conventional and microwave imagery, though the outflow has since been restored. A 0356 UTC GPM overpass showed that the mid-level center was displaced to the south of the low-level center. Objective and subjective Final-T numbers have fallen, and on that basis, the initial intensity has been decreased slightly to 65 kt. I expect little change in strength through the forecast period. Moderate shear should prevent significant intensification for the next couple of days, and could cause Jose to weaken to a Tropical Storm. After that time, Jose may begin transitioning to a more baroclinicly-driven cyclone. In fact, the GFS shows Jose with some extratropical characteristics by day 5. The dynamical models all indicate that Jose could regain some strength during this period, so the new NHC forecast reflects that. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 270/ 3 kt. Although the reasoning behind the track forecast has not changed, there has been a large shift to the west in the guidance since the last forecast. A mid-level ridge, now forecast to be a little stronger than previously expected, should cause Jose to turn toward the northwest, and eventually the north. Since the guidance has shifted left, the new official track forecast is west of the previous one, but now lays on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. I would prefer to see more run to run consistency before committing to a farther left track at this time. Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 25.1N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 25.2N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 25.9N 68.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 35.0N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
