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| #903082 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 14.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Satellite images show that Jose remains a sheared tropical cyclone. The center of the cyclone is on the northwestern edge of the deep convection, with any significant banding features in the southeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates suggest that Jose has weakened slightly, so the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt. Using fixes from early-morning microwave data, Jose appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt due to a building mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. Jose should gradually turn northwestward by the weekend and northward early next week while it moves around the ridge. A trough currently over the Lower Mississippi Valley into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to play a key role in how close Jose comes to the eastern United States. Some of the model solutions show the trough tugging on the tropical cyclone, causing a more north-northwestward motion at the end of the period, while others have the trough deflecting the cyclone more out to sea. While it is too early for details at this point, the model guidance is generally west of the previous forecast, so the new NHC prediction is shifted to the left, about 60 n mi west-southwest of previous forecast at day 5. Vertical shear is forecast to lessen in about a day near Jose, so restrengthening is expected to commence on Friday since the cyclone is over warm water. After day 3, Jose will be interacting with the aforementioned Lower Mississippi Valley trough, which will probably cause an increase in shear, although some baroclinic energy could lessen those effects. Although the official intensity forecast shows little change at the end of the period, the model guidance does show Jose becoming larger and more spread out as it interacts with the trough. Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 24.9N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 25.1N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 25.8N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 26.7N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 27.7N 72.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 29.8N 72.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 32.4N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 35.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
