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| #903142 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 14.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Although the shear affecting Jose for the past several days appears to be relenting, deep convection is still limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, perhaps in part due to dry air that was observed earlier today. A blend a objective and subjective current intensity estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. Based on SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF models, Jose should become embedded in a more humid environment beginning in about 12 h, and this, along with warm SSTSs, should support at least gradual strengthening. The intensity guidance remains in fairly good agreement that Jose will become a hurricane again tomorrow, and will have about 48-72 hours to intensify further before the shear increases substantially. Toward the end of the forecast, gradual weakening is forecast, but Jose is still expected to be a hurricane at day 5. Much like the intensity forecast, very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast. Based on a few recent microwave images, Jose seems to be continuing to move west-northwestward at around 7 kt. Jose is still expected to track along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, causing the cyclone to gradually turn toward the north over the next 2 days. Aside from the UKMET, which remains an outlier, the models are in fairly good agreement on the future heading of Jose, and vary mostly in speed. The new NHC forecast continues to generally split the GFS and ECMWF models, and is close to HCCA, which should account for the UKMET`s recent west bias. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 25.5N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 26.1N 69.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 26.9N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 27.9N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 29.0N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 31.4N 72.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 34.2N 71.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 37.0N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
