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| #903165 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 15.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The cloud pattern of the depression rapidly became better organized several hours ago when advisories were initiated. Since that time, the structure has changed little, and Dvorak T-numbers suggest that the winds are still 30 kt. Currently, the cyclone is embedded within a favorable environment of low shear, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual intensification during the next 3 days. However, the global models (primarily the GFS and the ECMWF) develop a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic which will bring high shear over the cyclone by day 4. This should result in weakening as indicated in the forecast. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt. The depression is being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. The same trough that will cause an increase in the shear will also weaken the subtropical ridge, causing the cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest beyond 3 days. The NHC track is very close to HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model consensus TVCX. These two models have been performing very well so far this season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.6N 27.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 11.0N 28.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 11.1N 30.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 11.2N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 11.3N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 12.2N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 13.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 15.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
