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| #903193 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 15.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The depression hasn't changed much in organization since the last advisory, with curved bands primarily in the southern semicircle due to some northerly shear. Dvorak estimates range from 25 to 35 kt, so the initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt. This is an uncertain estimate because ASCAT has not sampled the cyclone or its precursor system in quite some time. While the depression is forecast to be over warm waters for the 5-day period, westerly shear is likely to increase by early next week due to a large trough over the east- central Atlantic. Until day 3, the system should be experiencing light or moderate shear, which would favor gradual strengthening. The model guidance has backed off some since the last advisory, so the wind speed forecast is decreased at long range. However, the new NHC prediction still lies on the high side of the guidance. The depression is slowing down, and is now moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A west or west-northwest track is anticipated for the next several days while the system remains south of an increasingly skinny ridge over the eastern Atlantic. At long range, the system could turn more to the northwest or north as a trough deepens over the east-central Atlantic. A weaker cyclone, however, would tend to feel less influence from the trough, and continue moving west- northwestward. This is the solution suggested by the ECMWF and its ensembles plus the HFIP corrected consensus models, and the latest NHC prediction stays just to the northeast of that guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 11.4N 28.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 11.7N 29.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 11.9N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 11.9N 32.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 12.1N 33.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 13.2N 36.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 14.7N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
