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| #903198 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 AM 15.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 Satellite images indicate that a ragged eye is trying to form with Jose, although microwave data show that any eyewall features are broken. Dvorak estimates suggest that Jose is close to becoming a hurricane again, but since an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter will be there in a couple hours, it is best to leave the wind speed 60 kt for now. Environmental conditions seem to be conducive for intensification, as water vapor images show a noticeable improvement in outflow compared to yesterday. The light-shear window should be short lived, since southwesterly shear is forecast to increase by all models on Sunday. Thus some intensification is shown up to that day, with a gradual weakening forecast after the weekend due to decreasing SSTs and shear. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast. Jose has turned northwestward overnight at about 8 kt. A west- northwest to northwest motion is forecast through tomorrow while the storm moves around the southwestern periphery of a west Atlantic ridge. Jose is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and continue in that direction through Tuesday as it moves between the ridge and a small trough over the southeastern United States. Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement with the track of Jose, although the GFS-based guidance is a lot faster than the UKMET or ECMWF models. The new forecast is about the same as the previous one, near the corrected-consensus guidance. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is currently forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm- force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, it is too soon to determine if any other direct impacts from Jose will occur. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 26.5N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 27.1N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 29.1N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 30.4N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 33.3N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 36.1N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 39.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
