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| #903232 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 15.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that Jose has become a hurricane again, with a blend of the flight-level data and SFMR values giving an initial intensity of 65 kt. Further strengthening is possible over the next day or two while the hurricane remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear. By Sunday, southwesterly shear is forecast to increase, along with a gradual cooling of the SSTs. These conditions should promote some weakening of Jose, although all of the guidance are showing a fairly large hurricane for the next several days. The official forecast is close to the previous one for the first couple of days, then is blended downward to the latest model consensus. Jose continues moving northwestward, now at about 9 kt. The hurricane should turn north-northwestward tomorrow and northward by Sunday while it is steered around a western Atlantic ridge. Jose is then forecast to turn north-northeastward by Wednesday as it moves along the northwestern side of that ridge. The model guidance is in relatively good agreement on the forecast track, but the ECMWF is slower than the rest of the guidance. With the UKMET and its ensemble speeding up from 6 hours ago, the official forecast is nudged toward the model consensus at long range, but is still on the slow side, resulting in little overall change to the previous forecast. It is still important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively. While most of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 27.1N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 28.8N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 31.4N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 33.9N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 36.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 40.0N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
