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#903265 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 15.Sep.2017)

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

The overall organization of the tropical depression has changed
little since this afternoon. The center remains exposed to the
north and northwest of the deep convection, but there has been a
slight increase in banding over the southern semicircle within
the past hour or two. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, which
is in agreement with Dvorak data T-numbers from both TAFB and
SAB. The depression is forecast to remain within an area of
moderate to strong northwesterly shear during the next 24 to 36
hours while it moves over warm water. Therefore, only slight
strengthening is indicated over the weekend. After that time,
increasing westerly shear is forecast to weaken the cyclone, and it
is expected to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast

The depression has turned westward since the previous advisory, and
the initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. There has been no change
to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should move westward
to west-northwestward to the south of a narrow ridge over the
eastern Atlantic through Sunday. The global models indicate that
the ridge will weaken early next week as a large deep-layer trough
forms over the east-central Atlantic. This is expected to result in
a slightly more poleward track later in the period. The updated NHC
forecast is near the middle of the guidance through 48 hours, but
leans toward the left side of the envelope later in the period since
the typically reliable ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus models are
along the southern edge envelope at 72 h and beyond.


INIT 16/0300Z 12.8N 30.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 12.8N 31.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 12.9N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 13.0N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 13.3N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 15.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.2N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Brown