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| #903266 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 15.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Since the reconnaissance flight earlier this afternoon, convection within the inner-core of Jose has increased in coverage and organization. A banding eye appears to be forming, and a warm spot is apparent in IR imagery near the center of the cyclone. Dvorak classifications at 0000 UTC still supported an intensity of 65 kt, but given the increase in organization since then, the initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt. Additional strengthening is still expected for at least the next 24 to 36 h. After that time, an increase in southwesterly shear and gradually cooling SSTs are still expected to cap the intensification and eventually cause Jose to gradually weaken. The official intensity forecast remains a little above the model consensus for the first 48 h, and is close after that. Jose continues to move toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is 305/8 kt. The main source of uncertainty in the track forecast is at days 4 and 5, since the global models disagree on the speed at which Jose will move northward along the western edge of the subtropical ridge. The GFS continues to show a faster movement, which allows Jose to pass very close to the U.S. east coast before an approaching trough forces the cyclone to turn more toward the northeast. On the other hand, the ECMWF shows a slower track, so the trough steers the hurricane farther east. The NHC forecast has not been changed substantially and is still just a touch slower than the model consensus, out of respect to the ECMWF. When the 00Z ECMWF and UKMET models become available tonight, it could shed more light on the future speed of the hurricane. It is still important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively, and this error could be in the speed of the hurricane (along track error). While the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 27.4N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 29.2N 72.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 30.6N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 34.6N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 37.5N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 41.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
