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| #903289 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 16.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 The center of the depression continues to be located on the north side of a curved band of deep convection, and the outflow is only expanding to the south and west. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed and support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has the opportunity to become a tropical storm during the next 24 to 36 hours before a pronounced upper-level trough digs southward over the eastern Atlantic and brings strong northerly shear over the cyclone. The NHC forecast shows some strengthening through Sunday, but weakening should begin thereafter. The system should degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days. The depression is moving westward at 6 kt, steered by a narrow mid-level ridge to the north. The same trough that is bringing the shear will likely further weaken the ridge to the north, and this should result in a turn of the cyclone toward the west-northwest. The NHC track is in the middle of the guidance envelope through 48 hours, but after that time the forecast is uncertain since the guidance spreads out considerably. During that last period, the NHC forecast follows the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the trend of the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 12.6N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 12.6N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 12.6N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 12.7N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 13.3N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 15.2N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 17.0N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila |
