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| #903297 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 AM 16.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 NOAA buoy 41047 has been very helpful in determining the position and central pressure of Jose this morning. The center of Jose passed just north of the buoy around 0500 UTC, and a surface pressure of 986 mb with 20-30 kt of winds was measured. Since the buoy did not sample the stronger northeast quadrant of the storm, the initial intensity has been held at 70 kt. Another reconnaissance flight later today will provide a better estimate of the max winds. There is some indication of northeasterly shear inhibiting the outflow of Jose, which is restricted in the northwest quadrant. Since it appears to be negatively affecting the cyclone, the shear may inhibit any more substantial intensification. The intensity guidance is a little lower than before, so the new NHC forecast has been lowered slightly, and is now close to the intensity consensus throughout the forecast. Jose has moved just a little to the southwest of the expected track, and the initial motion remains 305/8 kt. However, Jose is still expected to begin turning toward the north later today, so no significant changes were needed for the early part of the forecast. More importantly, the GFS and ECMWF have met in the middle of their previous solutions, and have come into much better agreement on the forward speed of the hurricane beyond day 2. The new track forecast is very close to a 50/50 blend of the GFS and ECMWF. Although confidence in the track forecast is a little higher due to the model agreement, it is still important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively. While the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 31.2N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 32.9N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 39.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 41.0N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
