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| #903320 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 16.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 Deep convection has increased in intensity and coverage since this time yesterday, and a recent partial ASCAT pass from around 1100 UTC indicated that the system is now producing tropical-storm-force winds at least to the east of its center. Based on these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee with maximum winds of 35 kt. Lee has been able to strengthen a little despite about 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear. The cyclone appears to be located in a sweet spot of relatively low shear, with much stronger upper- level westerly winds located not too far to the north, and it may be able to thread the needle of lower shear for another 36 hours or so. After that time, the westerlies drop southward, and Lee will likely be hammered by 30 kt of westerly shear by 48 hours. With all that in mind, Lee is forecast to strengthen only slightly over the next or so, with weakening expected to begin by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and HCCA, and Lee may ultimately degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. Lee's initial motion is estimated to be 265/10 kt. The storm is located to the south of a weak mid-level ridge, and it is expected to move generally westward or west-northwestward for the entire forecast period. Although some of the track models are showing a more pronounced poleward motion, Lee's relatively low intensity and eventual weakening will likely keep it steered by lower-level flow. As a result, the NHC track forecast is near the southern edge of the guidance envelope, although not quite as far south as the ECMWF model. This forecast is not too different from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 12.5N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 12.4N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 12.5N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 12.9N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 13.6N 38.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 15.6N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 17.0N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 18.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg |
