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| #903324 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 16.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Earlier microwave data seemed to suggest that Jose`s low-level center is displaced to the northwest of the mid-level microwave eye, which is not surprising given that the various shear analyses indicate about 25 kt from the west-northwest. The initial intensity is being held at 70 kt, pending the arrival of an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon. The shear over Jose is not expected to abate, and in fact, it could increase further in the next 36 to 48 hours. However, the hurricane will remain over warm waters south of the Gulf Stream for the next three days, and the intensity models suggest that it should be able to at least maintain its intensity, if not strengthen slightly. After day 3, the hurricane will move north of the Gulf Stream over much colder water, and that will likely lead to the system weakening to a tropical storm. Although there will be a cold front approaching from the northwest by day 5, Jose still looks separated from the frontal zone at that point, and there is no appreciable injection of baroclinic energy at that time to allow for strengthening. Best I can tell, Jose is moving northwestward with an initial motion of 320/8 kt. Jose will be moving around the western periphery of a mid-level high anchored to the east of Bermuda, which will cause it to turn northward and maintain that heading through day 3. The track models are tightly clustered during this period, and there is relatively high confidence in the NHC forecast. After day 3, the models have come into much better agreement that Jose will become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the NHC track forecast is faster than the previous one by day 5 in order to keep up with the GFS and ECMWF. Regardless, Jose`s track and an expected increase in size will likely lead to impacts along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts in a few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 28.8N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 29.5N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 30.8N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 32.4N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 37.2N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 41.5N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
