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| #903355 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 16.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 Lee has changed little in organization since the last advisory, and the low-level center appears to be located along the northern edge of a persistent cluster of deep convection. Dvorak estimates have not changed, and the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. Lee is moving westward, or 270/9 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge, and it should maintain that trajectory for the next 24 hours. After that time, a break in the ridge should develop, but the weak nature of the cyclone should prevent it from turning too sharply toward the northwest. The updated NHC track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast, and it continues to lie south of the various consensus aids, closest to the HCCA model. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but continued north-northwesterly shear is likely to prevent significant intensification. Weakening is anticipated from 48 hours onward due to increasingly hostile shear, and Lee is likely to become a depression by day 3 and degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The intensity models have come down a little on this cycle, and the NHC forecast is actually a little generous, staying close to the SHIPS model along the upper bound of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 12.6N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 12.6N 35.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 12.7N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 13.2N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 13.9N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 15.9N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 18.5N 51.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg |
