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| #903359 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 16.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter made two passes through Jose`s center and found that the central pressure has dropped to 973 mb. A 700-mb flight-level wind of 82 kt was measured in an outer band to the northeast of the center, but the highest observed SFMR wind was 65 kt. Based on these data, Jose`s initial intensity is held at 70 kt. The lack of significant intensification in spite of the lower central pressure is probably due to an expansion of the wind field, which was observed by the reconnaissance aircraft. The aircraft fixes suggest that the center, or at least the mid-level center, has been reforming or meandering. Smoothing through the fixes suggests that Jose is moving slowly northward, or 360/5 kt. This motion, with some acceleration, is expected during the next 3 days while Jose moves around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The cyclone is then expected to turn northeastward and accelerate by the end of the forecast period when it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has shifted slightly eastward to account for the updated initial position, and it lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that a few models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, lie west of the forecast track, which does not rule out the possibility that Jose may move closer to the U.S. east coast than shown in the official forecast. Jose has a short period of time, perhaps 24 hours or so, when the shear remains steady and there is an opportunity for some slight strengthening. However, the shear is expected to increase over 30 kt after 24 hours, which should cause Jose to gradually weaken. The hurricane is likely to move north of the Gulf Stream in about 72 hours, and the official intensity forecast calls for Jose to weaken to a tropical storm at that time, and continue weakening as it moves eastward away from New England. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 28.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 29.6N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 30.9N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 32.3N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 33.8N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 37.1N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 40.0N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
