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| #903372 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:41 PM 16.Sep.2017) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 ...MARIA MOVING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 53.0W ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for Guadeloupe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * Martinique * Dominica * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 53.0 West. Maria is moving toward the west near 19 mph (30 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Maria is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Maria is forecast to be a hurricane when it approaches the Leeward Islands early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane watch area. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches will be possible for portions of the northern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
